Galway Advertiser 1987/1987_02_05/GA_05021987_E1_008.pdf 

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W h o Will Bring Home the Bacon in Galway West
M I C H A E L L A V E R , C e n t r e for the Study of Irish Elections, University College G a l w a y .
With seventeen candidates in the race for five seats in Galway West, we can be sure of one thing. There won't be enough seats to go around. Fianna Fail will be looking for three, Fine Gael for two, the PDs for one and Labour for one. They can only all go to bed happy on February 18 if someone turns the place into a sevenseater. And nobody is going to do that. Who is in for a disappointment? Let's start with Fianna Fail, whose fate is by far the most difficult to predict. THE FIANNA FAIL POSITION only an ostrich could really believe in his heart of hearts that, in particular with no new City candidate to replace Molloy, the party has not been weakened by the net effect of these comings and goings. Frank Fahey could lose, say, up to 2000 first preferences to Michael Fahy, now fighting for Neil Blaney's Independent Fianna Fail. Provided that The Stroke is eliminated before any of the Big Three FF candidates is at risk, the main threat posed is that some of Michael's sup porters will plump for him in protest at his convention treatment. These votes would then permanently be lost to Fianna Fail and, in a photo finish for the final seat, could make all the difference. Remember that Frank Fahey was only 87 votes ahead of Mark Killilea when the crucial e l i m i n a t i o n c a m e in November 1982. Tuathail took 803 first preferences in a tough Connemara local election, competing for them with local FF heavyweights such as Gerald Bartley, Nioclas O Conchubhair, Eamonn O Cuiv, Michael O Morain and Tommy Welby. What's more, he took more of O Conchubhair's surplus than Bartley, O Cuiv and Welby put together. O Tuathaill's votes weren't transferred, so we've no idea what might happen to them on elimination this time. O Tuathaill's intervention won't do G e o g h e g a n Quinn any good, however. It seems likely that O Cuiv. with his Cornamona base, will cut into Killilea's first preferences Certainly North Connemara was one of the areas that Mark had his sights on. The addition of Clifden-based Michael O'Neill for the PDs, on top of Molloy's traditional strength here, won't make new Fianna Fail votes any easier to come by in this part of the world. On the other hand, Killilea won't be too badly damaged by the coming and goings in South Galway and the Gaeltacht. But he needs a first preference lead over his running mates if the third FF seat is at risk. In the past, at least, he has slipped behind them in the tranfer race.

the first count is over. They will then be looking for transfers. They may get some from Peadar O Tuathail in Connemara and from Michael Fahy in South Galway, but if these do well in the first place it will be at the expense of FF first preferences so there's not much to be gained there. The other sources of transfers are the PDs (on O'Neill's probable elimination). Labour (though Michael D. has not been eliminated to' recent times) and Fine Gael. Of these, the PDs obviously seem the best bet. The November opinion poll showed PD transfers going about equally to Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. If FF was the closer to a quota, however, it might be the party able to put them to the better use. The PDs could, in the right circumstances, provide the votes needed to elect a third Fianna Fail TD. FINE GAEL A N D THEIR CHANCES

first on our doormats and contained not one mention of any other Fine Gael candidate (though John Mulholland, not on the ticket, sneaked into one of the photos on the back!) The battle for the safe Fine Gael seat is wide open. What we do know for certain is that they need quite a few more first preferences if they are to retain a second seat. They will pick up something from PD transfers, but only as many as Fianna Fail, so this in itself won't do the trick. THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS B o b b y M o l l o y ' s first preference vote was the big news of the pre-Christmas poll, after which most have accepted him as the front runner. Possibly as a

with in the middle phase of the count. This intervention could have a significant effect on the predictions in the November poll, t h e r e f o r e , which was dominated by Molloy's success and the effects of his transfers. M i c h a e l D . Higgins, for e x a m p l e , together with Fintan Coogan and Frank Fahey, received a considerable boost early in the count from Molloy's surplus. They could each be made to sweat a lot longer and harder for their votes LABOUR A N D THE W O R K E R S P A R T Y I've grouped these together because Labour's chances of winning back the fifth seat depend crucially on an injection of transfers, midway through the count, from the Workers Party.

When all is said and done, Fianna Fail are more under siege here in galway West than they are in most of the rest of the country. They could make it to three seats all right, they'll be close enough on first preferences, but they haven't made it easy for themselves. To lose a big gun like Molloy, a candidate based in the city where most of the votes are, and to replace him with someone from pretty much the most sparsely populated p a r t ' of the entire constituency is bound to weaken them. Fine Gael, the PDs and Labour on the other hand, are each going to get an awkward number of votes, leaving them each with substantial part-quotas. Viewed as a "Fianna Fail versus the Rest" contest, the Rest should have sufficient votes to take the last seat. But how many of these will transfer in useful ways, and who will they go to? There are straws in the wind that I've picked out above, but no certain answers. The result is going to be very tight, and the possibility of fluke gains and losses around the country is as great now as it ever was. At times like these the i n d e p e n d e n t s get the squeeze But this would be a pity Margaret Sweeney, for example, has run a very good campaign so far. Her fight for those who were born in a "poor, damp, draughty place" has ju attracted national attent* Peadar O Tuathail, now becoming a veteran campaigner on behalf of Connemara, has made people sit up and take notice with a couple of surprise election victories. The STV electoral system gives people a unique opportunity to put their votes to two good uses. They can give a boost to the causes of independents such as these by giving them their first preference votes. Yet they can also help the party of their choice by giving these their second preferences, secure in the knowledge that their votes will transfer at full value when the independent is eliminated. Most of the independents know that they won't be elected, a doubly good reason to let them know that their efforts didn't fall on completely deaf ears. Keeping alive the hopes of people who want to teach the established parties a lesson is one of the best uses to which anyone can put their vote. There s two for the price of one for you, and it's probably the best value that you'll be offered in the whole campaign.

The party got 53% of the Galway West vote in November 1982, pretty much the Connacht / Ulster average. The MRBI poll last week gave Fianna Fail 45% in the region -- the big FF gains have so far been made in Dublin, where the party did so Maire Geoghegan-Quinn badly last time out. Last will both gain and lose as a November's opinion poll result of all these comings gave Fianna Fail 44% in and goings. When Nioclas O Galway West so, barring Conchubhair polled 2513 late and dramatic swings, Gaeltacht votes in February somewhere in the mid-40s 1982, Maire polled 4139. looks a reasonable bet. but then got 1716 from him This will leave the party on transfer. When O Con s h o r t of t h r e e first chubhair didn't stand in preference quotas, for November, Maire got 5583 which they need precisely first preferences; she had to 50% of the vote. make do with a transfer of Since the last election, 468 from Bartley but ended Fianna Fail have suffered a up better overall as a result. couple of severe setbacks in With O Cuiv as the Connthe constituency. They have emara candidate and O lost Bobby Molloy in the Conchubhair out of the City, who got them 50% running, the Connemara more first preferences than end of the FF ticket should any other Fianna Fail help Geoghegan-Quinn. candidate last time, a total of 8234 votes. They've now lost Michael "The Stroke" Fahy in South Galway, a man who polled 2146 votes to Frank Fahey's 2387 in the 1985 County Council elections. Not only this, but both defectors are fighting their old party on its own patch and Molloy, on the evidence of the November opinion poll, is doing this very effectively. (The Stroke was still hoping for a Fianna Fail nomination when this THE GAELTACHT poll was taken). CHALLENGE T o compensate for these losses the party have added She faces a strong Eamonn O Cuiv to the independent challenge from ticket, a man who polled Peadar O Tuathail. a force 799 votes to Nioclas O to be reckoned with in the Conchubhair s 1842 in the Gaeltacht and recent winner County Council elections. of seats in the Udaras and Much of Fianna Fail's vote is County Council elections (in a oartv vote, of course, but which he beat O Cuiv). O

Fine Gael got 34% of the vote in Galway West last time, as opposed to 42% in the region as a whole. Last week's MRBI figure was 29% for Fine Gael in Connacht/Ulster, a figure that puts them in deep, deep trouble in Galway West. An equivalent local swing would leave them with about 23% of the vote here -- the identical figure to that found in the opinion poll before Christmas. This is just not enough to win two seats, it's as simple as that. Compared to the opinion THE MOLLOY FACTOR poll, FG score over FF in having a South Connemara The wildest card of them all, candidate, John O'Malley, however, is how Molloy's who got nearly 1000 votes exit will affect the fortunes of in the 1979 local elections. FF's remaining Big Three, Fine Gael did appallingly in the "outgoing members of the Gaeltacht in the opinion the Oireachtas" as the poll, so this change must be Fianna Fail nomination good news for them. It convention described them. remains to be seen, M o l l o y ' s surplus was however, whether O'Malley distributed in February can gather the 3259 votes 1982, though not in won last time in the same November. Maire Geogh area by Pol O Foighil, votes egan-Quinn did best from it, that greatly helped Fine followed by Frank Fahey, Gael to win that second with Mark Killilea a long way seat. behind. Given that quite a Which of the two Fine few of Molloy's votes were Gael contenders is most at Fianna Fail votes that may risk is an interesting now go to the other question. The November candidates, this evidence poll suggested that it was suggests that GeogheganJohn Donnellan. This was Quinn will benefit most from the result of heavier transfers his exit. After all, she is th& to Coogan from city-based remaining FF city candidate candidates such as Molloy and must pick up a good and McCormack. But bundle of Molloy's first Molloy now has a second preferences if the party is to candidate to give transfers stem the tide. to, and McCormack is not a All things considered, runner. What is more, Fianna Fail could well be Donnellan is clearly fighting short of three quotas after a very rigorous campaign -- his election literature was the

result of this strong showing, the PDs have decided to run a second candidate. That man is Michael O ' N e i l l from Clifden, someone with widespread connections as a result of his community work. This means that the PDs have chosen a second candidate from where they were strongest in the November poll, rather from the area where they were weakest, to the East of the City. This will make it very hard to say how many of O'Neill's first preferences would have gone to Molloy anyway, though quite a few PD voters would need to switch candidates before Molloy was pushed from the top of the pile. Molloy will get fewer first preference votes than forecast in November as a result of running a second candidate. Given the wide open fifth seat, PD thinking must be that you can't win a second seat if you don't try and that, in a flukey finale, anything could happen. But the PDs look a long way short of two quotas and there are no likely big sources of transfers for them during the count. Even if O'Neill doesn't do well on first preferences, however, he should get a big boost from Molloy's surplus, which will make him a contender to be reckoned

Without that injection of votes. Labour has little chance. Obviously the big news for Labour since the opinion poll was the visit of Tomas Mac Giolla. who told Galway West's WP voters not to transfer to Michael D. Since then, everyone in the area has been rowing away from this statement, since it is not clear who it might harm most, but there is no getting away from the fact that Labour needs those WP transfers. Even with them, the left is short of a quota. City candidates, however, have always transferred quite strongly to each other. This means that Michael D. can also expect some help from Bobby Molloy (via Michael O'Neill?). Maire G e o g h e g a n - Q u i n n and Fintan Coogan are likely to be in the race to the end, so they won't be much use to him, but Labour has in the past picked up small packages of votes at each stage of the count. They're almost certain to be in at the finish, even if Michael D. Hiqqins isn't one of the names in the frame. Given the closeness of the race, however. Labour is certainly in serious contention, provided of course that their first preferences hold up reasonably well.